How will Carlos Alcaraz fare in first major without Ferrero? Breaking down the Australian Open men's draw

The men’s draw at the first Grand Slam of 2026 would seem to be as simple, straightforward, and drama-free as any we’ve ever seen. Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner have played in the finals of the last three majors, and as they head toward their mid-20s, they’re only getting better. Who could possibly derail a fourth straight final-round collision?

126 other players will do their best starting on Sunday in Melbourne (Saturday evening Eastern Time). Do any of them have a chance? Here’s a section by section look at the draw.

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First Quarter

Before we anoint Sinner and Alcaraz as the de facto finalists, we should remember that the Australian Open is the only Slam where one of them hasn’t made the final. Or even the semifinals.

That would be Alcaraz. Three years ago he was injured; two years ago, he lost to Alexander Zverev in the quarterfinals; last year he lost to Novak Djokovic, also in the quarterfinals. He has never come out of the gates firing on all cylinders.

This year the 22-year-old will be facing another potential obstacle: The absence of his long-time, and now former, coach Juan Carlos Ferrero. Along with the instruction that Ferrero gave him in practice, he also conveyed a lot of information to him during matches. When Ferrero wasn’t there, Alcaraz could look lost. We’ll see how he handles not hearing his voice.

Read: Instant reaction to the men's draw reveal

There's NEVER an easy path to the final in Melbourne 🫢

Tell us which match you want to see the most ✍️ #AusOpen pic.twitter.com/mrsZtmH47u

— Tennis Channel (@TennisChannel) January 15, 2026

That said, his draw gives him a pretty clear path to his first AO semifinal. He’ll start against 79th-ranked Adam Walton. In the third round he might face either Corentin Moutet or Seb Korda. Tommy Paul is a possible fourth-round opponent. And No. 6 Alex De Minaur is scheduled to be his quarterfinal foe. Facing an Aussie at home shouldn’t bother Alcaraz: He’s 5-0 against De Minaur.

There are other talented players in this quarter—Alexander Bublik. Flavio Cobolli, Frances Tiafoe—but Alcaraz can’t meet any of them until the quarters.

Dark Horse

• Bublik. The 10th seed is coming off a title run last week, and can beat anyone on any given day. Alcaraz could face him in the quarters; they’ve never played before.

First-Round Matches to Watch

• Korda vs. Michael Zheng, a top college player from New Jersey who has been rising through the Challenger ranks
• Paul vs. Aleksander Kovacevic
• Bublik vs. Jenson Brooksby

Semifinalist: Alcaraz

Second Quarter

Alexander Zverev is No. 3 in the world. He made the final here last year, has been to the semis two other times, and has a 31-10 record in Melbourne. But after his well-publicized, and self-publicized, struggles of 2025, how much of a threat is the 28-year-old this time around?

Like Alcaraz, his draw should help. The seeds closest to him are Andrey Rublev and Cam Norrie; Zverev is 13-3 against them combined.

The two tougher opponents in this quarter—No. 11 seed Daniil Medvedev, No. 7 seed Felix Auger-Aliassime—are both in the lower half. Medvedev, who just won in Brisbane, is a three-time Australian Open finalist who looks determined to make up for the collapse he suffered in 2025. Auger Aliassime has reached the quarterfinals here, and finished last year with a meteoric rise into the Top 5.

If Medvedev and FAA collide in the fourth round, I’ll take Medvedev. I’ll also take him over Zverev in the quarters.

First-Round Matches to Watch

• Learner Tien vs. fellow Californian Marcos Giron
• Auger-Aliassime vs. Nuno Borges

Semifinalist: Medvedev

If Medvedev and FAA collide in the fourth round, I’ll take Medvedev. I’ll also take him over Zverev in the quarters.

Third Quarter

What should we make of Novak Djokovic’s chances? There are two radically different factors to consider. On the positive side, he has won this tournament 10 times, and has a 99-10 record there. On the negative side, he’s 38 and hasn’t won a major since 2023—an eternity for him.

Still, Djokovic held steady when he had to in 2025, making the semis at all four Slams, before (a) his body gave out, or (b) he was overmatched by either Sinner or Alcaraz, or (c) both. This time he’s in Sinner’s half. More important, he’s in a quarter that should give him a chance to show how much he still has left.

Djokovic starts against 71st-ranked Pedro Martinez, a clay-courter he has never played before. The first seed he could face is No. 27 Brandon Nakashima; he has never played him before, either. His fourth-round opponent could be a towering server like Jakub Mensik or Hubert Hurkacz.

Djokovic cuts practice short due to neck injury 🚨

“He’s the greatest of all time...but he better pray he has a good draw” - Danielle Collins#AusOpen pic.twitter.com/4ipI5uozQI

— Tennis Channel (@TennisChannel) January 14, 2026

The two highest-ranked players in this quarter—No. 5 Lorenzo Musertti and No. 9 Taylor Fritz—are both on the other side. Of those, Fritz may be more dangerous on hard courts, but he happens to be 0-11 against Djokovic.

We’ll find out how fairly quickly Novak handles best-of-five. If he can keep his fitness up and his body together, he should be the favorite to make his 13th semi here.

Dark Horse: 31st seed Stefanos Tsitsipas was a finalist Down Under as recently as 2023, and is the last player to beat Sinner there. He could play Musetti in the third round.

First-Round Matches to Watch

Nakashima vs. Botic Van de Zandschulp

Hurkacz vs. Zizou Bergs

Stan Wawrinka vs. Laslo Djere

Grigor Dimitrov vs. Tomas Machac

Semifinalist: Djokovic

Fourth Quarter

Sinner is on a 14-match Australian Open win streak dating back to 2023. Last year he dropped just two sets on the way to the title, and won his semifinal and final in lop-sided fashion. The courts, the atmosphere, the time of year, the fact that he has an Australian coach: Everything about the so-called Happy Slam suits Sinner’s serene demeanor.

His draw likely suits him, too, whoever is in it. It’s hard to think of a player in the field, outside of Alcaraz, who could be called a credible threat to Sinner at this tournament right now.

He’ll start against 94th-ranked Hugo Gaston; Sinner is 2-0 against him. In the third round, he could play 28th seed Joao Fonseca, who made a splash at this tournament last year; they’ve never met. Sinner’s potential fourth-round opponent, Karen Khachanov, does have a win over him, back in 2020, but the Italian is 4-0 against the Russian since.

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Sinner’s potential quarterfinal opponents include No. 8 Ben Shelton and No. 12 Casper Ruud. Sinner is 8-1 against Shelton, and 4-0 against Ruud.

All of which is to say: Sinner losing before the semis would be a shock.

First-Round Matches to Watch

Shelton vs. Ugo Humbert

Khachanov vs. Alex Michelsen

Semifinalist: Sinner

Semifinals

Medvedev d. Alcaraz; Sinner d. Djokovic

Final

Sinner d. Medvedev