Will History Repeat? Red Bull Flags Aero as Bigger Threat Than Engines in F1 2026

As Formula 1 enters a new era in 2026, questions loom over where teams and manufacturers stand, and what will ultimately separate the fastest cars on the grid. 

FIA single-seater director Nikolas Tombazis has suggested that the internal combustion engine (ICE) will largely determine the pecking order. Ben Hodgkinson, director of Red Bull Ford Powertrains, partly agrees but sees another potential game-changer. 

Asked by Motorsport whether the ICE would be the main performance differentiator in 2026, Hodgkinson acknowledged its likely impact on the new power units, despite the higher share of electrical power, but emphasised that aerodynamics should not be overlooked. 

“I think within the power unit space itself it could be true that the internal combustion engine might be the biggest differentiator,” Hodgkinson said. “I think that on the ERS side everyone will be sort of 99% efficient on their power electronics and their motor. 

“I think the biggest differences are probably going to be on the ICE side, and that does work with your fuel partner a lot as well. So in our case, ExxonMobil has been really vital in trying to get as much performance as we can out of the ICE.” 

Hodgkinson does not expect a repeat of 2014, when his former employer Mercedes had such a dominant power unit that it effectively locked in their superiority for years. 

“I think the differences between the power units are going to be less than we've seen in 2014, because the power unit or the ICE in particular is very, very similar,” he explained. “Yes, it's got sustainable fuels, and yes, we've lost the MGU-,H and there's been a compression ratio limit. There's been lots of tweaks to the regulations that deliberately kind of reset combustion technology, but it's not a million miles away [from what we had].”

 

Photo by: Red Bull Content Pool

The 2026 regulations have, in some ways, made development more accessible, a change aimed at helping newcomers such as Audi integrate into Formula 1. 

“It's not like we're suddenly developing a different configuration,” Hodgkinson pointed out. “It's still a V6, and it's still fundamentally the same. All the lowering of things like compression ratio and boost limits have actually made the loads a bit less, so the stress the parts have to go through is a little easier. 

“I think the power units could be similar. Maybe I'm saying that because technically we're newcomers as Red Bull Powertrains, although an awful lot of my staff have lots of F1 experience. Maybe I don't feel so much like a newcomer as perhaps we should do, and maybe that's why I'm saying that. 

“It'll be interesting to see where all the other teams are, but I guess there's a bigger risk on the aero side.” 

The FIA has also recognised that aerodynamic differences could emerge under the new regulations, while noting that significant convergence is expected in the months ahead, similar to what happened in 2022. Hodgkinson, however, believes aerodynamics could remain a decisive factor this season. 

“But aerodynamics is not really my expertise, so you shouldn't really take it as an official statement,” he laughed. “But it's a complete reset with the whole car, it's not just a reset for the power units. So yeah, there should be differences, and we'll see what they are.”